EURO first round picks average 90 PO

The Season 7 EURO draft later in 2016 will feature current NHL players and prospects from the NHL draft in June, but for Season 8, we will need a new draft set.

Discussion initiated today by Geoffrey Paul (London) centered around the notion of having GMs forward names of past NHLers who have made an impact on us as fans. The idea, Paul said, would be to forward a list of four or so players and then generate attributes for them.

Later in the discussion, 86-year-old (just kidding) John Charles offered an example. He said he would forward these names: Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Brad Park and Barcley Plager. Names like Georges LaRaque and Mick Vukota were later sprinkled into the thread.

A vote during Season 7 will decide if such a plan is what the majority would like to do, but Commissioner Massaro would like to start the process now to do the math, processing, etc. in order to get an accurate picture of how such a draft class would look.

Assuming most would not like a field of 100 PO players like Orrs, Gretzkys and Lemieuxs, the question then becomes what would the ideal PO breakdown be? Massaro went into the draft history, clicked on every player taken in the first round of the five previous 3-round drafts and averaged their current PO ratings. Through this chart, we can align any new PO ratings to the historic averages. For example, the average PO we have drafted with the number one overall pick in this league is 90 and the average player picked 24th is 78.75.

Before looking at the chart below, consider the following factors and realize there is a lot of chance/luck involved in Websim drafting, as there should be.

  • Teams’ investments in player development affect these numbers. For example, I believe Staffan Kronwall’s PO rating when he was drafted was 90. It has evolved to 89 today. In other words, the numbers you are looking at are their current PO ratings, not the PO ratings they had on draft day.
  • Players drafted as prospects throw off averages. Nathan MacKinnon and Aaron Ekblad, for example, got great attributes their first years. Leon Draisaitl got poor ones.
  • Goalies also throw off averages because some are scooped up early by teams desperate for goaltending while others are often passed over for a few rounds, which contributes to higher averages for some lower draft positions.
  • Not all teams pick the players with the highest PO ratings. Andrei Markov and Mike Hoffman, for example, were drafted ahead of higher PO players in order to provide immediate help.

Here is the chart showing the average PO ratings per draft position so far in EURO history. A similar breakdown will be done for Rounds 2 and 3 in the future.

draft averages

The best first rounds, according to this research (and the top overall pick) were, in order:

  • Season 2 (Staffan Kronwall), 85.58 PO average
  • Season 6 (Mark Stone) 83.88
  • Season 4 (Ondrej Palat) 83.09
  • Season 5 (Viktor Antipin) 82.29
  • Season 3 (Braden Holtby) 82.13

Here are the other two rounds:

draft averages RD2

draft averages RD3

The best overall draft classes, according to this research (and the top overall pick) were, in order:

  • Season 2 (Staffan Kronwall), 81.79 PO average
  • Season 5 (Viktor Antipin) 79.62
  • Season 4 (Ondrej Palat) 79.15
  • Season 6 (Mark Stone) 79.01
  • Season 3 (Braden Holtby) 78.74

The average PO rating of every player drafted so far is 79.86

 

With these averages in mind, I propose these PO targets for the Season 8 draft. I added points to the first 3 slots and to the bottom 2 If we agree on targets, then we can start putting names next to the numbers. *This is all assuming the proposal passes a vote during Season 7.*

  1. 96 – Start of Round 1
  2. 93 –
  3. 91 –
  4. 87 –
  5. 86 –
  6. 86
  7. 85
  8. 85
  9. 83
  10. 83
  11. 83
  12. 83
  13. 83
  14. 82
  15. 82
  16. 82
  17. 82
  18. 82
  19. 82
  20. 82
  21. 82
  22. 81
  23. 81
  24. 81 – End of Round 1
  25. 81 – Start of Round 2
  26. 81
  27. 81
  28. 81
  29. 81
  30. 80
  31. 80
  32. 80
  33. 80
  34. 80
  35. 79
  36. 79
  37. 79
  38. 79
  39. 79
  40. 79
  41. 79
  42. 79
  43. 79
  44. 79
  45. 78
  46. 78
  47. 78
  48. 78 – End of Round 2
  49. 78 – Start of Round 3
  50. 78
  51. 78
  52. 78
  53. 77
  54. 77
  55. 77
  56. 77
  57. 77
  58. 77
  59. 77
  60. 77
  61. 76
  62. 76
  63. 76
  64. 76
  65. 76
  66. 76
  67. 76
  68. 75
  69. 75
  70. 75
  71. 74
  72. 74

 

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One thought on “EURO first round picks average 90 PO

  1. Pingback: Season 8 Draft Project: Names coming in | eurohockeyleague

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